A confidence interval turns a single sample estimate into a range of plausible values for the population parameter: the estimate plus or minus a critical value times the standard error.
Confidence Interval for a Mean:xbar +/- critical value * standard error - Estimate plus or minus a margin of error.
Standard Error of xbar:SE_xbar = sigma / sqrt(n) - Standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample mean.
A sample of 25 measurements has mean 50, and the population standard deviation is known to be 5. Build a 95% confidence interval for the population mean.
Inputs. Sample mean 50, sigma = 5, n = 25, confidence level 95%.
The standard error is 5 / sqrt(25) = 1, the margin of error is 1.96 * 1 = 1.96, and the interval runs from 48.04 to 51.96.
Frequently asked questions
What does 95% confidence actually mean?
It describes the procedure, not one interval: if you drew many samples and built an interval from each, about 95% of those intervals would contain the true population mean. Any single interval, like (48.04, 51.96) above, either contains it or does not.
What makes a confidence interval narrower?
A larger sample size, a smaller standard deviation, or a lower confidence level. The margin of error is the critical value times sigma / sqrt(n), so quadrupling the sample size halves the width at the same confidence level.
When do I use z versus t for a confidence interval?
Use the z critical value when the population standard deviation is known, as in the worked example. When sigma is estimated from the sample, use the t critical value with n - 1 degrees of freedom, which widens the interval to reflect the extra uncertainty.